Relationship with Moscow
2 / 5 · Strained
Tense relations and pushing away, though Moscow retains leverage.
Moscow Lens Project · Introduction
Three decades after the Soviet Union’s dissolution, Russia still shapes the political choices of the countries that emerged from it, whether through alignment, wariness, or open conflict. This project attempts to provide a brief overview of each post-Soviet state, besides Russia and Ukraine, which are better known generally, and whose relationship is defined by the Russian invasion and Russo-Ukrainian War. The Moscow Lens Project examines each state’s national politics and its relationship with the Kremlin, giving readers the background knowledge to understand the region as a whole. Information is current as of October 2026.
Background and Political Overview
Moldova is a nation in the northeastern Balkans, bordered by Romania and Ukraine, with 2.5 million people. It shares a common language and similar culture with Romania; however, during the Soviet era, it was part of the Soviet Union as a Soviet republic, while Romania was communist under a satellite state. Today, Moldova remains outside the European and NATO sphere of influence, with constitutional neutrality enshrined, meaning it has no national interest in joining military alliances. Moldovan politics center on a constant back-and-forth between pro-European and pro-Kremlin parties over the direction of the young nation. Moldova’s president Maia Sandu, a pro-European politician, was re-elected in 2024, and Moldova began its application to join the European Union in 2022, with the process still ongoing.
The last Moldovan elections were in 2025. The pro-European, liberal center-right party Action and Solidarity (PAS) received over 50% of the vote, while the pro-Russian Patriot Electoral Bloc received a quarter. In contrast, Alternative and Our Party, mildly pro-European and pro-Russian smaller parties, helped round out parliament. This election helped cement a pro-EU direction, mandated by voters, as well as the PAS’s platform of anti-corruption and energy independence. This election was not without complication, as reports of Russian electoral interference were widespread. This included misinformation, illegal financing, and vote buying.
Stance on Russia
As the recent elections show, Moldova's relationship with Russia is strained, and Russia continues to try to maintain influence in the country. Moldova is almost completely reliant on natural gas and oil from Gazprom, a Russian national company, and two pro-Russian parties in the country maintain close links to Moscow, even being banned 2 days before the 2025 elections for financing from Moscow. Another issue for Moldova is the breakaway state of Transnistria, which is fully backed by Russia and maintains an active garrison of around 1,500 troops, creating constant intimidation. Despite this, Moldova has been solidly pro-Ukrainian, giving humanitarian aid and taking in over 100,000 refugees. They also help export Ukrainian grain, with the alternative in the black sea being untenable due to Russian submarines and the taking over of Ukrainian port cities such as Mariupol.
The Moscow Lens scale
- 1AdversarialOpenly opposed to the Kremlin; firmly in the Western camp.
- 2StrainedTense relations and pushing away, though Moscow retains leverage.
- 3BalancingHedging between Moscow and other powers; neither aligned nor opposed.
- 4AlignedA Russian ally, economically and militarily tied to Moscow.
- 5SubordinateMoves in lockstep with the Kremlin; an extension of Moscow.
Sources
- BBC News — www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-17601580
- Freedom House, Freedom in the World 2026 — freedomhouse.org/country/moldova/freedom-world/2026