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Country Dossier · Eastern Europe

Belarus

As of October 2026 · By Desmond Sala

Relationship with Moscow

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5 / 5 · Subordinate

Moves in lockstep with the Kremlin; an extension of Moscow.

Moscow Lens Project · Introduction

Three decades after the Soviet Union’s dissolution, Russia still shapes the political choices of the countries that emerged from it, whether through alignment, wariness, or open conflict. This project attempts to provide a brief overview of each post-Soviet state, besides Russia and Ukraine, which are better known generally, and whose relationship is defined by the Russian invasion and Russo-Ukrainian War. The Moscow Lens Project examines each state’s national politics and its relationship with the Kremlin, giving readers the background knowledge to understand the region as a whole. Information is current as of October 2026.

National Political Overview

Belarus is an Eastern European country with around 9 million people. It borders Russia to the east, Ukraine to the south, and NATO and EU members Poland and Lithuania to the west and north. Since 1994, shortly after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Belarus has been ruled by the absolute dictator Alexander Lukashenko. He governs as President of Belarus with full executive powers, and his party, Belaya Rus, has maintained control of the parliament throughout his presidency. Like other Russian allies, the country's other political parties also support the Lukashenko regime and are considered a controlled opposition. In the last presidential election in 2025, Lukashenko won over 85% of the vote; however, this result has been widely condemned as illegitimate. Interestingly, the vote was moved from its original August date to January to avoid mass protests, which occurred during the last election in 2020 and had to be put down violently.

Belarus has exiled or jailed any real opposition in the country, and the country has been cracking down on independent media, activism, and foreign NGOs, especially after the 2020 protests. There are massive reports of human rights violations and corruption, all showing Belarus as a deeply repressive state. Belarus also exists within the Union State, a political entity that deepens the connection between the state and the Kremlin. This is apparent in their military cooperation and the domination of Russian companies and enterprises within Belarus, with the Belarusian economy almost completely reliant on Russia.

Stance on Russia

According to the government, Belarus is deeply tied to Russia and moves in lockstep with the Kremlin across a wide range of international efforts. Belarus is a part of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. While Belarusian troops are not fighting on the ground in Ukraine, they have allowed the Kremlin to use its territory as a staging ground for invasions into Ukraine, starting in 2022, and Russia uses Belarusian material support to help supply and train its troops for the war. As a vassal of the Kremlin, Belarus fully supports Russian actions and provides support without directly joining the conflict. To Moscow and the outside world, Belarus is not an independent actor on the world stage, but an extension of the Kremlin.

The Moscow Lens scale

  1. 1AdversarialOpenly opposed to the Kremlin; firmly in the Western camp.
  2. 2StrainedTense relations and pushing away, though Moscow retains leverage.
  3. 3BalancingHedging between Moscow and other powers; neither aligned nor opposed.
  4. 4AlignedA Russian ally, economically and militarily tied to Moscow.
  5. 5SubordinateMoves in lockstep with the Kremlin; an extension of Moscow.

Sources

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