Senate Square SocietyRelationship with Moscow
1 / 5 · Adversarial
Openly opposed to the Kremlin; firmly in the Western camp.
Moscow Lens Project · Introduction
Three decades after the Soviet Union’s dissolution, Russia still shapes the political choices of the countries that emerged from it, whether through alignment, wariness, or open conflict. This project attempts to provide a brief overview of each post-Soviet state, besides Russia and Ukraine, which are better known generally, and whose relationship is defined by the Russian invasion and Russo-Ukrainian War. The Moscow Lens Project examines each state’s national politics and its relationship with the Kremlin, giving readers the background knowledge to understand the region as a whole. Information is current as of October 2026.
Background and Political Overview
Lithuania is a Baltic State, within the European Union and NATO. They were the first Soviet republic to declare independence in 1990. It is the largest of the 3 Baltic states in both size and population (2.8 million), and the only one without a sizable Russian minority, at only around 5% of the population. Also, separately from its Baltic neighbors, Lithuania is a highly Catholic nation, with 3/4s of the population identifying as such. It has a semi-presidential system, with the president holding more power in foreign affairs. In contrast, the prime minister and parliament still have significant control over domestic issues.
Gitanas Nausėda has been president of Lithuania since 2019. An independent, however, endorsed by the center-right party Homeland Union. In the latest election, held in 2024, Social Democrats won slightly with 20% of the vote, ahead of Homeland Union; the right-wing populist party Nemunas Dawn cleared 15% of the vote, while the rest of the vote was among 9 different parties. The next elections will be in 2028, and current issues will remain at the forefront of the election. In October of 2026, the prime minister proposed a permanent US military base, with the parliament advancing a constitutional amendment to lift the ban on foreign military bases and nuclear weapons. This, along with the cost-of-living crisis, is central to the contemporary political environment.
Stance on Russia
Lithuania borders the Kaliningrad oblast, a Russian exclave on the Baltic coast. This threat from the south, along with its location next to Belarus and close to Russia proper, has put it in a precarious position. With these recent developments into a potential US military installation in the country, the Kremlin has warned this will trigger a “severe European escalation,” and Moscow would respond to these threats. As of October, Lithuania has stationed troops along the border with the Oblast, hoping to deter Russian mobilization. This comes amid a recent souring of relations between Lithuania and Russia. Lithuania has been a staunch ally of Ukraine, applying sanctions and using frozen Russian assets for Ukrainian reconstruction and militarization efforts. Russia, in turn, has used hybrid warfare strategies to apply pressure; Lithuania frequently reports Russian drone incursions, electronic jamming, cyberattacks, and intelligence-led sabotage operations across the Baltic region. A future escalation with Russia will put Lithuania on the frontline.
The Moscow Lens scale
- 1AdversarialOpenly opposed to the Kremlin; firmly in the Western camp.
- 2StrainedTense relations and pushing away, though Moscow retains leverage.
- 3BalancingHedging between Moscow and other powers; neither aligned nor opposed.
- 4AlignedA Russian ally, economically and militarily tied to Moscow.
- 5SubordinateMoves in lockstep with the Kremlin; an extension of Moscow.
Sources
- BBC News — www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-17536867
- Freedom House, Freedom in the World 2025 — freedomhouse.org/country/lithuania/freedom-world/2025