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Country Dossier · The Caucasus

Armenia

As of October 2026 · By Desmond Sala

Relationship with Moscow

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2 / 5 · Strained

Tense relations and pushing away, though Moscow retains leverage.

Moscow Lens Project · Introduction

Three decades after the Soviet Union’s dissolution, Russia still shapes the political choices of the countries that emerged from it, whether through alignment, wariness, or open conflict. This project attempts to provide a brief overview of each post-Soviet state, besides Russia and Ukraine, which are better known generally, and whose relationship is defined by the Russian invasion and Russo-Ukrainian War. The Moscow Lens Project examines each state’s national politics and its relationship with the Kremlin, giving readers the background knowledge to understand the region as a whole. Information is current as of October 2026.

National Political Overview

Armenia is a nation located in the Caucasus, with around 3.1 million people. The only Caucasus republic that doesn't directly border Russia, Armenia has a long history that includes a larger historical country and a genocide of 1/3rd to over half of the total Armenian population at the hands of the Ottoman Empire. Armenia’s modern history as a nation-state begins with its push for independence in the early 1990s. Almost immediately after independence in 1991, a dispute between the Armenian and Azerbaijani SSRs over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh turned into a hot war. This region, which has been subject to constant fighting, was recently incorporated into Azerbaijan following a 2023 military offensive, which Armenia continues to protest.

The last Armenian election happened in June of 2026. The winners of the election, Civil Contract, won a little under half of the vote; however, they lost seats in parliament. They are a centrist, moderate, and pro-European party, and their outright control of 64/101 seats in the Armenian parliament means they steer Armenia's political future. They have been pushing to reduce reliance on Russia and deepen integration with the West through the European Union. The other two main parties, Strong Armenia and Armenia Alliance, are both staunchly pro-Russian and benefited from strong Russian interference through disinformation campaigns and political financing from Moscow. The Armenian government responded to these threats with political persecution and unrest, showing how the Russians manage to weaken a burgeoning democracy whether their candidates win or lose.

Stance on Russia

The 2023 Artsakh war, fought over Nagorno-Karabakh, is still fresh in the minds of Armenians. Russian peacekeeping forces were present in the region when the Azerbaijanis deported Armenians and took over the area, and did nothing about it, which has since soured relations. Armenia was close to Russia as part of the CSTO military alliance; however, this event led it to freeze its membership. While still a member of Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union (an economic answer to the EU), Armenia's prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, has worked to wind down the strategic relationship with Moscow and has begun exploring closer ties with the European Union. So, while the two nations have maintained close ties since the dissolution of the soviet union, this recent event has pushed Armenia to consider other allies, and the relationship is at its lowest since 1991. However, Armenia is not hostile to Russia, and economically it remains heavily tied to Moscow and the Kremlin, relying on its natural gas.

The Moscow Lens scale

  1. 1AdversarialOpenly opposed to the Kremlin; firmly in the Western camp.
  2. 2StrainedTense relations and pushing away, though Moscow retains leverage.
  3. 3BalancingHedging between Moscow and other powers; neither aligned nor opposed.
  4. 4AlignedA Russian ally, economically and militarily tied to Moscow.
  5. 5SubordinateMoves in lockstep with the Kremlin; an extension of Moscow.

Sources

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