Relationship with Moscow
4 / 5 · Aligned
A Russian ally, economically and militarily tied to Moscow.
Moscow Lens Project · Introduction
Three decades after the Soviet Union’s dissolution, Russia still shapes the political choices of the countries that emerged from it, whether through alignment, wariness, or open conflict. This project attempts to provide a brief overview of each post-Soviet state, besides Russia and Ukraine, which are better known generally, and whose relationship is defined by the Russian invasion and Russo-Ukrainian War. The Moscow Lens Project examines each state’s national politics and its relationship with the Kremlin, giving readers the background knowledge to understand the region as a whole. Information is current as of October 2026.
National Political Overview
Kazakhstan is a Central Asian nation bordering Russia. Its western edge, on the other side of the Ural River, is considered part of Europe. Of the Central Asian republics, it has the largest Russian population, with around 3 million Russians in a country of 21 million people. The country is a large exporter of petroleum and uranium. Its national petrol company, KazMunayGas, is a large collaborator with Gazprom. After independence in 1991, Kazakhstan remained under the leadership of Nursultan Nazarbayev and his party, Amanat; he led the Kazakh SSR and held executive power until 2019. During this time, he consolidated control, disempowered opposition parties, and attacked civil liberties. Despite stepping down from the presidency in 2019, he kept the title of “Leader of the Nation” to maintain influence in the country.
Nazarbayev's successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, solidified his authority in the same way Nazarbayev had, through crackdowns on independent media, protests, and opposition. The last elections were held in November 2022, when Tokayev and his support, the People’s Alliance, won handily amid internet blackouts and forced campaign advertising. This election came after protests at the beginning of the year that turned violent, earning the name “Bloody January”. The government used prison torture, ill-treatment, and custody deaths on more than 10,000 detainees. In 2026, a new constitution was approved, changing the bicameral legislature to a unicameral one and restructuring how the government works in many ways. Kazakhstan has been a republic in name only for some time, but recent events have shown a willingness to use violence on its own people to maintain that system.
Stance on Russia
Kazakhstan and Russia maintain close economic, security, and cultural ties. As mentioned beforehand, Kazakhstan is home to a large Russian population. This puts Kazakhstan in a situation where it must appease Moscow, which maintains a “protector of Russians outside of Russia” mantle and pursues gradual de-Russification. Kazakhstan is part of the CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union, with Russia as a critical investor and trading partner. However, Kazakhstan has been pushing a multi-vector approach, maintaining diplomacy with Europe and the West while also working with China, which has become its largest trading partner. While Astana still allies with Russia, it is technically neutral about the Ukraine War. They abstained from votes in the UN condemning Russia; however, public sentiment is against the Russians, and has led the nation into De-Russification efforts. While still a Russian ally, they have increasingly used a multi-vector approach to seek economic opportunities outside of the Kremlin's sphere of influence.
The Moscow Lens scale
- 1AdversarialOpenly opposed to the Kremlin; firmly in the Western camp.
- 2StrainedTense relations and pushing away, though Moscow retains leverage.
- 3BalancingHedging between Moscow and other powers; neither aligned nor opposed.
- 4AlignedA Russian ally, economically and militarily tied to Moscow.
- 5SubordinateMoves in lockstep with the Kremlin; an extension of Moscow.
Sources
- BBC News — www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-15263826
- Freedom House, Freedom in the World 2026 — freedomhouse.org/country/kazakhstan/freedom-world/2026