Senate Square Society
← Moscow Lens Project

Country Dossier · The Caucasus

Azerbaijan

As of October 2026 · By Desmond Sala

Relationship with Moscow

12345

2 / 5 · Strained

Tense relations and pushing away, though Moscow retains leverage.

Moscow Lens Project · Introduction

Three decades after the Soviet Union’s dissolution, Russia still shapes the political choices of the countries that emerged from it, whether through alignment, wariness, or open conflict. This project attempts to provide a brief overview of each post-Soviet state, besides Russia and Ukraine, which are better known generally, and whose relationship is defined by the Russian invasion and Russo-Ukrainian War. The Moscow Lens Project examines each state’s national politics and its relationship with the Kremlin, giving readers the background knowledge to understand the region as a whole. Information is current as of October 2026.

National Political Overview

Azerbaijan is a South Caucasus nation home to over 10 million people. It has huge oil and natural gas deposits, which make up 90% of its economy and are a major source of national wealth. They have been in a constant conflict with neighboring Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. The early years after independence were filled with chaos and economic instability. After a period of increased political turmoil following the Armenian victory in the first war, a soviet era KGB officer, Heydar Aliyev, became president. He ruled from 1993 until 2003, and his son Ilham Aliyev succeeded him and has ruled ever since. They have concentrated authority within the executive branch, while prosecuting opponents, attacking civil liberties, and holding sham elections.

In 2024, Aliyev won his 5th election, and his party, the New Azerbaijan Party, continued its dominance of Azeri politics. This came after a 2023 military offensive in which Baku took full control over Nagorno-Karabakh, where it deported almost the entire Armenian population, creating a humanitarian crisis. In addition, it has not fully reopened its borders since COVID, operating a single train to Georgia. Overall, this country is deeply authoritarian with numerous human rights violations, propped up by oil exports.

Stance on Russia

Baku has historically tried to balance its foreign policy towards large powers, offering Russia certain concessions to maintain close ties. From 1993 to 2023, the relationship was strong, with cooperation and economic collaboration formalized through documents like the 1997 Treaty of Friendship and the 2008 Declaration of Friendship and Strategic Partnership. However, the relationship between the two nations began to deteriorate soon afterward. After the Azeri invasion of Nagorno-Karabakh, Russian peacekeepers were pulled from the area, and Russia was sidelined as a mediator between Yerevan and Baku, which it had historically been. In 2024, Russian air defenses accidentally shot down an Azerbaijan Airlines flight over the North Caucasus, which sparked public outrage from Baku and the Azeri people. In the years that have followed, domestic crackdowns from both countries have focused on attacking each other's foreign nationals, further deteriorating the relationship. Now, Baku is attempting to redefine its position globally and has begun verbally supporting Ukraine. While still in Russia's shadow, Azerbaijan is trying to distance itself from the Kremlin.

The Moscow Lens scale

  1. 1AdversarialOpenly opposed to the Kremlin; firmly in the Western camp.
  2. 2StrainedTense relations and pushing away, though Moscow retains leverage.
  3. 3BalancingHedging between Moscow and other powers; neither aligned nor opposed.
  4. 4AlignedA Russian ally, economically and militarily tied to Moscow.
  5. 5SubordinateMoves in lockstep with the Kremlin; an extension of Moscow.

Sources

← GeorgiaAll countries & the mapTajikistan →